Key Metrics
- Total Net Product Sales: $11,483 million (8% YoY)
- Growth Portfolio: $5,812 million
- Opdivo: $2,360 million (+4% YoY)
- Orencia: $936 million (+1% YoY)
- Yervoy: $642 million (+11% YoY)
- Reblozyl: $447 million (+80% YoY)
- Opdualag: $233 million (+40% YoY)
- Abecma: $124 million (+33% YoY)
- Zeposia: $147 million (+20% YoY)
- Breyanzi: $224 million (+143% YoY)
- Camzyos: $156 million (+129% YoY)
- Other Growth Products: $433 million (+39% YoY)
- Legacy Portfolio: $6,080 million
- Eliquis: $3,002 million (+11% YoY)
- Revlimid: $1,412 million (-1% YoY)
- Pomalyst/Imnovid: $898 million (+3% YoY)
- Sprycel: $290 million (-44% YoY)
- Abraxane: $253 million (-3% YoY)
- Other Legacy Products: $225 million (-5% YoY)
- Marketing, Selling and Administrative Expenses: $1,983 million (-1% YoY)
- Research and Development Expenses: $2,374 million (+6% YoY)
Forward guidance
- 2024 Revenue Guidance: Full year 2024 revenue expected to increase approximately 5% as reported and approximately 6% at constant currency, primarily due to higher-than-anticipated sales of Revlimid.
- Revlimid Sales Estimate: Updated full year sales estimate for Revlimid is approximately $5.5 billion.
- Operating Margin Target: Confident in achieving a full year operating margin target of at least 37% for 2024.
- Operating Expenses: Total operating expenses expected to increase approximately 4% to 5% for the year, reflecting higher fourth quarter spending.
- EPS Guidance: Raising non-GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $0.75 to $0.95 for 2024.
- Debt Reduction Target: On track to pay down approximately $10 billion of debt by the first half of 2026.
- Cobenfy Launch Expectations: Anticipate achieving 80% to 85% access for Cobenfy within approximately 12 months post-launch, with a significant ramp-up in sales expected in the second half of 2025.
Key takeaways
- Positives:
- Chris Boerner highlighted a 20% increase in growth portfolio revenues, indicating strong demand for key products, which now account for half of total revenues. This suggests a solid foundation for future growth.
- The FDA approval of Cobenfy, a novel schizophrenia treatment, is expected to address significant unmet needs, with management anticipating a ramp-up in sales post-approval. Adam Lenkowsky noted, "We expect to see sales ramp in the second half of the year," indicating confidence in market uptake.
- The company is on track to achieve $1.5 billion in cost savings by 2025, which will be reinvested into high-return opportunities, enhancing operational efficiency.
- The pipeline remains robust, with multiple promising assets in late-stage development, including Milvexian for atrial fibrillation, which is expected to read out in 2027. Samit Hirawat stated, "We are encouraged by what we're seeing here," reflecting optimism about the program's potential.
- Negatives:
- The legacy portfolio faces challenges, particularly with the recent loss of exclusivity for Sprycel and Pomalyst, which could impact revenue stability. David Elkins noted, "We just want to make sure that people update their models for the additional generic erosion."
- Competitive pressures in the schizophrenia market may slow Cobenfy's uptake, as Adam Lenkowsky acknowledged, "Access is a gating factor to sales uptake," emphasizing the need for broad access to maximize sales.
- The anticipated increase in operating expenses by 4-5% in Q4 due to higher spending to support the product portfolio could pressure margins. Elkins mentioned, "This increase reflects higher fourth quarter spending," indicating potential short-term financial strain.
- Regulatory changes and market dynamics, particularly related to Medicare and Medicaid, could complicate access and reimbursement for new products, as highlighted by Lenkowsky's comments on navigating these complexities.
Peer Summary
- Competitive Pressures: Johnson & Johnson noted "ongoing uncertainty" from litigation and market dynamics, which could impact revenue stability, similar to Bristol Myers' challenges with its legacy portfolio.
- Market Dynamics: AbbVie highlighted "increased competition from biosimilars" affecting Humira sales, indicating a trend that could also impact Bristol Myers' legacy products facing generic erosion.
- Sales Growth Variability: Eli Lilly reported "quarter-by-quarter revenue growth... impacted by supply and channel dynamics," suggesting potential volatility in sales that could affect Bristol Myers' revenue predictability.
- Regulatory Challenges: Merck mentioned "regulatory challenges" that could hinder profitability, reflecting broader sector risks that may also affect Bristol Myers' new product access and reimbursement.
- Innovation Focus: Pfizer emphasized a "shift to high innovation and high growth markets," indicating a competitive trend towards innovative therapies that could challenge Bristol Myers' market positioning.
